It’s November 4th and there’s still no clear winner for the US Presidential Race. Meanwhile different tweets say stock market is up or down whenever there’s a positive or negative outlook for either Trump or Biden. Whether the observation is up or down, it all depends on who the twitter user is supporting.
This cartoon without the caption is available at my store.
“Sell in May and Go Away” is an old stock market adage. Historically, the Stock Market tends to perform better from Halloween to May Day than the other six summer months. It is hence called Halloween Indicator as well.
Tomorrow is Halloween 2020. Should I start buying? Let’s look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
We had the COVID crash this year but looks like the DJIA index is slowly recovering…but with COVID second wave and the US Presidential Election, I think I’ll just use the very useful meaningless phrases like “I’m cautiously optimistic” or “Take a Wait and See Approach”. Don’t I sound smart without really saying anything? I think by just copying and pasting the chart above (from google), I misled you. Happy Halloween!
Have you noticed each price of Apple’s products end with a 9? That is not a coincidence. It’s a type of psychological pricing, often called ‘charm pricing’. The last digit of the price ends in 9, 99, or 95. For example, $5 and $4.99 are almost identical prices, but your brain processes them differently. To your brain, $4.99 is much cheaper than $5 – it is processed as $4 instead of $5.
Ambiguity Effect is a cognitive bias. It took me a while to figure out that the probability of getting a yellow (or black) ball is 1/3, so I decided to draw this cartoon so that I don’t forget. But if a Black Swan prepped the box I don’t think it will be 1/3 chance.
In business, if you’d like your customer to go with one option but not the other, give more information to the one you’re trying to sell and not much info for the other one.
The last box is available for download from My Store.